Immigration from Muslim-Majority Countries Fell 96% Under Trump

A decline in two categories

Cato Institute's analysis of State Department data tracks monthly immigrant visa issuances and lawful refugee admissions from 45 Muslim-majority countries. The combined count fell from 21,096 in December 2024 to 808 in February 2026, a 96% decline. The monthly data show two distinct stages: refugee admissions nearly disappeared in early 2025, while immigrant visa issuances remained in the thousands each month before dropping sharply in early 2026.^[11]

In February 2025, the combined count was 12,383, including 12,381 immigrant visas and two refugees. By December 2025, immigrant visa issuances were 9,307; in January 2026 they were 3,757, and in February they were 808. The chart includes every month from January 2024 through February 2026, so the endpoint can be judged against the preceding pattern.^[11]

What each route contributed

The two routes changed differently. Refugee admissions from the 45 countries fell from 5,157 in December 2024 to zero in February 2026. Subtracting those admissions from the combined count leaves 15,939 immigrant visas issued in December 2024 and 808 in February 2026, a 95% decline.^[11]

The decline was 96% for the 45 Muslim-majority countries, compared with 36% for other countries in Cato's analysis. The change was not uniform across nationalities: Afghanistan's combined count fell from 5,563 to nine, or 99.8%. Cato reports that Qatar, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates were the only three countries in the group with increases over the same two months.^[11]

Policy timeline

The monthly chart shows when the measured counts changed. The refugee suspension preceded the sharp drop in refugee admissions. Country-specific visa restrictions followed, and a broader immigrant-visa issuance pause was in force during the chart's final month.^{[6][7][8][12]}

• January 20, 2025: refugee-program entry suspension, subject to exceptions.^[6]
• June 2025: country-specific visa restrictions, including Afghanistan and Somalia, subject to exceptions.^[7]
• January 1, 2026: a revised country list and exceptions took effect.^[8]
• January 21, 2026: a separate pause on immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries took effect. The State Department says that pause ended on August 21, 2026, after a court order; it was in effect during the chart's final month.^[12]

The wider refugee decline

Refugee admissions are one part of the 45-country measure above. To see what happened to the refugee program as a whole, a different series is needed: the US Refugee Admissions Program admitted 100,034 people in fiscal 2024, 38,102 in fiscal 2025 and 16,292 in fiscal 2026, an 83.7% decline from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2026.^[1] Fiscal 2025 straddled the two administrations. While this is not specific to Arab or Muslim refugees, it does mean that far fewer of them are coming in to our country under the current administration.

The nationality reports show how the broader decline affected two countries in the 45-country group. Afghan refugee admissions were 14,708 in fiscal 2024, 6,758 in fiscal 2025 and five in fiscal 2026. Syrian admissions were 11,274, 4,553 and zero. The fiscal 2026 report also lists zero from Somalia.^[4][5]

The State Department's Near East and South Asia refugee region fell from 12,281 in fiscal 2025 to five in fiscal 2026. That 99.96% decline refers only to this refugee-region measure.^[2][3]