Nation of Settlers

Replacement Tracker

Replacement Tracker methodology

  • Changes are percentage points over the stated periods. Only changes of at least two points enter the racial and ethnic rankings.
  • In the racial view, the US comparison uses Census figures; the other 1970–2025 pairs are archived site estimates whose endpoints have not been source-verified.
  • The 2000 religious values are interpolated from 1990 and 2010; the religious endpoints have not been source-verified.
  • The population groups that were already established in a country by 1970, and that defined its character before the recent immigration wave. It is measured at the 1970 baseline because that is the low point of the twentieth-century restriction era, before the 1990 Act and its equivalents abroad. It is not the same as native-born or as white: it includes long-settled minorities that were a significant part of the country by 1970 - Black Americans in the United States, Maori in New Zealand, the Turkish minority in Bulgaria - and excludes recent arrivals whatever their race. Groups under approximately 2% of the 1970 population are not listed separately.
  • Historical census observations and their sources are listed separately below.
Sources

Today's immigration to Western countries resembles colonial migration to African and Asian colonies in the early/mid 1900's.

25 countries

Foundational racial decline under modern western migration

Change (percentage points)
2 pts16 pts30 pts
Country · share comparisonChange

Sources

Original country source links

These are the links retained with the original country profiles. A link does not by itself establish the 1970–2025 percentages; the source must match the stated years, population, and racial, ethnic, or religious measure.

Sweden

Germany

Belgium

United States

Switzerland

Australia

Canada

Austria

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

New Zealand

Ireland

Norway

Denmark

France

United Kingdom

Greece

Portugal

Finland

General and historical references

Separate census and survey figures

The tables below document the specific years and measures stated in each entry. They do not verify a different 1970–2025 comparison.

[1] Austria: figures and sources

Muslim affiliation (2021 survey estimate) · 1971–2021

Austria, total population including institutional residents. Statistics Austria published historical comparison, page 3, Islamisch row; shares retain source rounding. Through 2001 these are census declarations. The 2021 voluntary Microcensus survey imputes affiliation for children under 16 from parents, estimates institutional residents, and adjusts nonresponse through weighting. This method change affects comparability. Religious affiliation is not race, ancestry or immigration status.

1971: 0.3% → 1981: 1.0% → 1991: 2.0% → 2001: 4.2% → 2021: 8.3%

[2] Ireland: figures and sources

White census categories · 2011–2022

Usual residents present, all ages. Shares divide category counts by all usual residents present, including ethnicity not stated. White combines White Irish, White Irish Traveller and Other White; 2022 also includes Roma, under the White heading on the census form. Category changes and increased nonresponse affect comparisons. Counts and denominators appear below.

2011: 94.2% → 2016: 92.4% → 2022: 87.4%

White Irish · 2011–2022

Usual residents present, all ages. Shares divide category counts by all usual residents present, including ethnicity not stated. White combines White Irish, White Irish Traveller and Other White; 2022 also includes Roma, under the White heading on the census form. Category changes and increased nonresponse affect comparisons. Counts and denominators appear below.

2011: 84.5% → 2016: 82.2% → 2022: 76.6%

[3] United Kingdom: figures and sources

White ethnic group · England and Wales only · 1991–2021

England and Wales usual residents, all ages. ONS Census observations for England and Wales only; this is not a whole-UK estimate or a measure of immigration’s causal effect. The UK map outline is used to locate this partial-area series. The former UK-wide 1970–2025 comparison remains in the archived data as unverified.

1991: 94.1% → 2001: 91.3% → 2011: 86.0% → 2021: 81.7%

White British ethnic group · England and Wales only · 2001–2021

England and Wales usual residents, all ages. ONS Census observations for England and Wales only; 2021 wording is White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British. Category wording changed from the 2001 White: British category. This is not a whole-UK estimate or a measure of immigration’s causal effect. The former UK-wide 1970–2025 comparison remains archived as unverified.

2001: 87.5% → 2011: 80.5% → 2021: 74.4%

Muslim affiliation · England and Wales only · 2001–2021

England and Wales usual residents, all ages. ONS Census observations for England and Wales only. Religion is self-reported and the question is voluntary; shares use the whole population, including nonrespondents, as denominator. This is not a whole-UK estimate or a measure of immigration’s causal effect. The former UK-wide 1970–2025 comparison remains archived as unverified.

2001: 3.0% → 2011: 4.9% → 2021: 6.5%

[4] United States: figures and sources

White alone · 1970–2025

Residents of the 50 states and DC, all ages. 1970 census observations compared with 2025 Census Bureau population estimates. The 1970 non-Hispanic White figure uses the 15-percent sample definition of White not of Spanish origin; Hispanic-origin wording and race coding changed over time. White alone includes Middle Eastern and North African origins under the Census classification. These shares do not measure ancestral tenure or isolate immigration’s contribution. The line breaks between the 2020 census and the 2025 population-estimate series because revised race-question coding affects their comparability.

1970: 87.5% → 1980: 83.1% → 1990: 80.3% → 2000: 75.1% → 2010: 72.4% → 2020: 61.6% → 2025: 72.3%

White alone, not Hispanic or Latino · 1970–2025

Residents of the 50 states and DC, all ages. 1970 census observations compared with 2025 Census Bureau population estimates. The 1970 non-Hispanic White figure uses the 15-percent sample definition of White not of Spanish origin; Hispanic-origin wording and race coding changed over time. White alone includes Middle Eastern and North African origins under the Census classification. These shares do not measure ancestral tenure or isolate immigration’s contribution.

1970: 83.2% → 1980: 79.6% → 1990: 75.6% → 2000: 69.1% → 2010: 63.7% → 2020: 57.8% → 2025: 56.1%

[5] New Zealand: figures and sources

European ethnic group (total response) · 2018–2023

Census usually resident population. European counts: 3,297,864 and 3,383,742; total populations: 4,699,755 and 4,993,923. Multiple ethnic affiliations are permitted. European is cultural affiliation, not a race classification. Both censuses use combined enumeration; the break with the 2013 model is why that earlier point is excluded.

2018: 70.2% → 2023: 67.8%

[6] France: figures and sources

Muslim affiliation, ages 18–49 · 2008–09 → 2019–20

Metropolitan France, ages 18–49 in ordinary households. INED–INSEE TeO and TeO2 survey estimates, figure 3, common age range. Plot years mark the end of each survey period. The separate 10% Muslim estimate in figure 2 covers ages 18–59 in 2019–20; it is not an all-ages share or an African or Middle Eastern ancestry estimate. No 1970 baseline is inferred.

2008–09: 8.0% → 2019–20: 11.0%

[7] Canada: figures and sources

Muslim affiliation · 2001–2021

Canada, population covered by census religion statistics, all ages. Published Statistics Canada shares from the 2001 and 2021 censuses and the 2011 National Household Survey, retaining one-decimal source shares. Counts for 2001 and 2021 are 579,640 and 1,775,715. Religious affiliation includes Muslim, Ahmadi, Ibadi, Shia, Sunni and other Muslim affiliations; it is not ancestry or birthplace. The 2021 religion statistics cover private households. No 1970 baseline is inferred.

2001: 2.0% → 2011: 3.2% → 2021: 4.9%

Not a visible minority (includes Indigenous people) · 2001–2021

Canada, population covered by census visible-minority statistics, all ages. Calculated as 100 minus the published national visible-minority shares (13.4%, 16.2%, 19.1%, 22.3% and 26.5%), retaining source rounding. The 2011 value comes from the National Household Survey rather than a census. This category includes Indigenous people and is not White alone. The 2021 long-form census covers private households. Classification and coverage are described in the reference guide. No 1970 or 2025 endpoint is inferred.

2001: 86.6% → 2006: 83.8% → 2011: 80.9% → 2016: 77.7% → 2021: 73.5%

Ireland: census counts and definitions
  1. CSO: 2011 and 2016 ethnicity counts
  2. CSO: 2022 ethnicity, table F5085
  3. CSO: 2022 census categories (Roma within White)
YearWhite categoriesWhite IrishTotalNot stated
20114,264,4653,821,9954,525,2811.55%
20164,331,9403,854,2264,689,9212.64%
20224,444,1453,893,0565,084,8796.16%

Shares include people who did not state ethnicity in the denominator. White combines the census White categories, including Roma in 2022. Changed categories and rising nonresponse affect comparisons. These observations do not isolate immigration’s contribution to change.

[8] Algeria: historical census and departures

Kamel Kateb (2003), table 1, reproduces northern Algeria’s Muslim and non-Muslim population counts from the 1960 statistical yearbook. Shares divide each category by their combined total. Non-Muslim is not synonymous with European settler; it includes Algerian Jews. The series ends in 1954. The 1962 departure report does not supply a comparable remaining-population share. Unsupported histories for the other countries have been withdrawn.

Supporting sources
Country-by-country evidence directory

The source directory links to UN national/ethnic-group and religion tables, with additional national sources for Russia and Somalia. Open a country to inspect available figures, dates and limitations. Countries absent from the selected comparison are not evidence of zero change.

Geographic coverage

Greenland is a self-governing part of the Kingdom of Denmark. It is shown as a separate geographic area; Denmark-only population figures are not applied to it. The country count includes only entries in the selected comparison.

  1. Danish Prime Minister’s Office: The Unity of the Realm